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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.